Sunday, June 26, 2016

Brexit : British exist from EU : A critical review

In the recent past a lot of talks & discussions are emerging regarding the British exist from EU. On 23rd of June'2016 British voters have voted in a favor for Brexit from the EU, which means that in the coming few months the EU leaders and British leaders would be going through a long debate / negotiations regarding the departure.

British Prime Minister, David Cameron didn't want to hold a vote for Brexit at all, but due to mounting pressure from the populist rights over immigration and Britain's EU membership, he  promised to hold a referendum if his Conservative Party won 2015 elections. Now this was partly to stop dissenters in his own party and also to stop the rise of UK Independence party.

Just after the voting result were out in favor of the Brexit , Mr. Cameron announced he would resign by October'2016. No one knows what is next but likely outcome is that former London Mayor who supported the campaign for Leave Vote, Mr. Boris Johnson may take over.

In the coming few years the British trade uncertainty with EU, its largest trading partner may push Britain to a mild recession. Volatility in the currency market and stock markets are seen everywhere. Brit pounds lost 9% & FTSE 100 stocks was down 3% the very next day. This volatility is a sign of worry and sights of a favorable deal with EU is weakened with the exist of Cameron.

In the business prospects there could be need for multi-approvals or regulations as boundaries are now separated with the exist. Immigration laws that allowed citizens of EU member countries to travel or work with minimal paperwork might get stricter. Currently there are about 1.2 million Brits living in EU member countries and about 3 million non-Brit EU member countries live in Britain.
As per some critics British economy would be smaller by about 4-7 % by 2030, but it depends on how well the negotiations are done in the coming months.

 Now the British exist can have repercussions to other parts of the globe too. The ambiguous negotiations could cripple investments and may led to more exists. Economic risk is a function of uncertainty, now the financiers and companies are concerned that they get cut-out of the free trade channels and are in search of safer heavens for their money. Multinational companies invests in UK operations partly to access the free trade corridors that UK enjoys. Now since the corridor is now closed it might result in multi-nationals booking drastic reduced profits. In 2014 about 1.84 trillion euros were invested by US and 1.99 trillion euros flowed out. Now even a small share of that pie can be catastrophic. UK has other big trade with China, India, Japan etc...

The uncertainty of the time has come and the world is a global financial village. A fire in one hut would soon catch up the second and then the third and it continues, Sound financial stability and fundamental strength of the economy backed by it banking system, technological reforms, innovative strengths would survive the future.

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